These data are collected as part of Christensen P., Gillingham K., and Nordhaus, W. 2018. Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth
This file describes the data and programs used to replicate results reported in: "Uncertainty in Forecasts of Long-Run Economic Growth."
Please contact [email protected] with any questions.
NOTE: Pathnames must be changed in all files.
********************************************Expert Survey Forecasts
(1) Responses and Quantile Estimates from Expert Survey: ExpertForecastData
Notes:
- Expert names are anonymized. Expert vector refers to individuals.
- Period codes indicate 40-year or 90-year forecast horizon.
(2) To recover the mean and sigma of expert forecast distributions (reported in Table 1): run matlab script: FindNormalParameters.
Notes:
- This program computes the mean and sigma for expert forecasts by region and horizon.
- Pathnames must be changed. Mean [column 10] and Sigma [column 11] contained in output file (estimatedparameters).