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๐Ÿ“ˆ Prediction of Exchange Rate with Deep Learning (for paper)

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DL_ExchangeRate

๐Ÿ“ˆ ๋”ฅ๋Ÿฌ๋‹์„ ํ™œ์šฉํ•œ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ํ™˜์œจ ์˜ˆ์ธก (๋…ผ๋ฌธ ์ž‘์„ฑ์šฉ)
๐Ÿ“ˆ Prediction of Exchange Rate with Deep Learning (for paper)


๐Ÿšฉ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ฑ

  1. ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ 2์ฃผ์น˜๋ฅผ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์•ž์œผ๋กœ์˜ ์ผ์ฃผ์ผ์น˜๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜๋Š” ๋ชจ๋ธ

  2. ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ชจ๋ธ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ ์™ธ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์กฐ๊ฑด์„ ๋™์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์„ค์ •.

  3. ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ Attention, Event Attention์„ ์ ์šฉํ•ด๋‚˜๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ณผ์ •์„ ๋‹ด์Œ.

Event Attention: ๋งค ์˜ˆ์ธก step ๋งˆ๋‹ค, ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ impact๊ฐ€ ์ปธ๋˜ event์™€์˜ ์œ ์‚ฌ๋„๋ฅผ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์—ฌ ํ•ด๋‹น ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋ธ. ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ traumaticํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๊ณ ๋ คํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์•„์ด๋””์–ด์—์„œ ์ฐฉ์•ˆ ์˜ˆ์ธก์„ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•  ๋•Œ, Input Sequence์˜ Temporalํ•œ ์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•จ๊ณผ ๋™์‹œ์— ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ํŠน์ • ์‹œ์ ๊ณผ์˜ ๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ฐจ์ด์ .



๐Ÿ“ƒ ํŒŒ์ผ ์„ค๋ช…

Normal_Seq2Seq : ์„ฑ๋Šฅ ๋น„๊ต๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ํ˜•ํƒœ์˜ Seq2Seq ๋ชจ๋ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

Attention_Seq2Seq : ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ Seq2Seq์— Attention์ด ์ ์šฉ๋œ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

Event_Seq2Seq : Event Attention์ด ์ ์šฉ๋œ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

Sep_Prediction : ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•œ ๋ณ€ํ™”์—๋„ ๊ฐ•๊ฑดํ•œ์ง€ ํ™•์ธํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ฝ”๋“œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. argparser๋กœ ๋ชจ๋ธ ํ…Œ์ŠคํŒ…์„ ๋” ๊ฐ„๊ฒฐํ™” ์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค


TODO

  • Validation
  • Compare with "Real Input Sequence" not Context Vector
  • Change num_layers, to GRU etc...
  • with WandB

โœจ Training Methodology

ํ•™์Šต ๋ฐฉ์‹์˜ ์ฐจ์ด๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๋ชจ๋ธ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์ฐจ์ด๋ฅผ ํ™•์ธํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ชฉํ‘œ์˜€๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—, ํ•™์Šต ๋ฐฉ์‹์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํŠœ๋‹์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ๊นŒ์ง€ ์„ธ๋ถ€์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

  • Epoch : 1000
  • Optimizer : Adam
  • Larning Rate : 0.001
  • Scheduler : None

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๐Ÿ“ˆ Prediction of Exchange Rate with Deep Learning (for paper)

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