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graphs
graphs
 
 
logs
logs
 
 
q4logs/logs-temp
q4logs/logs-temp
 
 
scraping
scraping
 
 
.gitignore
.gitignore
 
 
Brier_score.py
Brier_score.py
 
 
Brier_score_narrative.py
Brier_score_narrative.py
 
 
Brier_score_singlemodel.py
Brier_score_singlemodel.py
 
 
README.md
README.md
 
 
aibq3_news.json
aibq3_news.json
 
 
aibq3_news_limited.json
aibq3_news_limited.json
 
 
aibq3_outcomes.csv
aibq3_outcomes.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_conf_4o.csv
aibq3_outcomes_conf_4o.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_narrative1_4o.csv
aibq3_outcomes_narrative1_4o.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_narrative1_claude_sonnet.csv
aibq3_outcomes_narrative1_claude_sonnet.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_narrative_4o.csv
aibq3_outcomes_narrative_4o.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_narrative_claude_sonnet.csv
aibq3_outcomes_narrative_claude_sonnet.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_past_4osonnet.csv
aibq3_outcomes_past_4osonnet.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_past_claude_haiku.csv
aibq3_outcomes_past_claude_haiku.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_past_claude_sonnet.csv
aibq3_outcomes_past_claude_sonnet.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_past_deepseekv3.csv
aibq3_outcomes_past_deepseekv3.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_patch.csv
aibq3_outcomes_patch.csv
 
 
aibq3_outcomes_scatterplots.xlsx
aibq3_outcomes_scatterplots.xlsx
 
 
aibq3_predictions.json
aibq3_predictions.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_conf_4o.json
aibq3_predictions_conf_4o.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_narrative1_4o.json
aibq3_predictions_narrative1_4o.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_narrative_4o.json
aibq3_predictions_narrative_4o.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_narrative_claude_sonnet.json
aibq3_predictions_narrative_claude_sonnet.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_past.json
aibq3_predictions_past.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_past_claude_haiku.json
aibq3_predictions_past_claude_haiku.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_past_claude_sonnet.json
aibq3_predictions_past_claude_sonnet.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_past_deepseekv3.json
aibq3_predictions_past_deepseekv3.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_past_o1.json
aibq3_predictions_past_o1.json
 
 
aibq3_predictions_patch.json
aibq3_predictions_patch.json
 
 
aibq3_resolutions.csv
aibq3_resolutions.csv
 
 
aibq4_news.json
aibq4_news.json
 
 
aibq4_outcomes_past_gemini_flash2.csv
aibq4_outcomes_past_gemini_flash2.csv
 
 
aibq4_predictions_past_gemini_exp_1206.json
aibq4_predictions_past_gemini_exp_1206.json
 
 
aibq4_predictions_past_gemini_flash2.json
aibq4_predictions_past_gemini_flash2.json
 
 
aibq4_resolutions.csv
aibq4_resolutions.csv
 
 
directprediction.py
directprediction.py
 
 
directprediction_anthropicopenAI
directprediction_anthropicopenAI
 
 
extract_probabilities.py
extract_probabilities.py
 
 
extract_probabilities_conf.py
extract_probabilities_conf.py
 
 
extract_probabilities_narrative.py
extract_probabilities_narrative.py
 
 
extract_resolution.py
extract_resolution.py
 
 
models.py
models.py
 
 
narrativeprediction.py
narrativeprediction.py
 
 
newspipeline.log
newspipeline.log
 
 
newspipeline.py
newspipeline.py
 
 
notes.md
notes.md
 
 
patchq.py
patchq.py
 
 
prompts.py
prompts.py
 
 
requirements.txt
requirements.txt
 
 
sigtest.py
sigtest.py
 
 

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llm-forecasting-q3

code for testing llm forecasting abilities

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testing llm forecasting abilities

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