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fix equation terms
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avallecam authored and pratikunterwegs committed Mar 28, 2024
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8 changes: 4 additions & 4 deletions vignettes/estimate_static_severity.Rmd
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -180,18 +180,18 @@ cfr_static(

$$
u_t = \dfrac{\sum_{i = 0}^t
\sum_{j = 0}^\infty c_i f_{j - i}}{\sum_{i = 0} c_i},
\sum_{j = 0}^\infty c_{i - j} f_{j}}{\sum_{i = 0} c_i},
$$

where $f_t$ is the value of the probability mass function at time $t$, and $c_t$, $d_t$ are the number of new cases and new deaths at time $t$ (respectively).
We then use $u_t$ in the following likelihood function to estimate severity.

$$
{\sf L}(\theta | y) = \log{\dbinom{u_tC}{D}} + D \log{\theta} +
(u_tC - D)\log{(1.0 - \theta)},
{\sf L}(\theta | C_{t},D_{t},u_{t}) = \log{\dbinom{u_{t}C_{t}}{D_{t}}} + D_{t} \log{\theta} +
(u_{t}C_{t} - D_{t})\log{(1 - \theta)},
$$

$C$ and $D$ are the cumulative number of cases and deaths (respectively) until time $t$.
$C_{t}$ and $D_{t}$ are the cumulative number of cases and deaths (respectively) until time $t$.

Lastly $\theta$ (severity) is estimated $\theta$ using simple maximum-likelihood methods, allowing the functions within this package to be quick and easy tools to use.

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