Economic Valuation of YLL and DALYs

docs/treaty/cost-of-disease.md

@@ -1,17 +1,38 @@
 # Global Cost Of Disease
 
-The **$244 trillion** total global cost of disease is a comprehensive measure that encompasses direct healthcare costs, indirect economic losses, and the economic valuation of Years of Life Lost (YLL) and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). This holistic approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the economic impact of diseases on society.
+The **$244 trillion** annual total global cost of disease is a comprehensive measure that encompasses direct healthcare costs, indirect economic losses, and the $100k valuation of a Year of Life Lost (YLL) and a $100k valuation Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALYs). 
 
 ## Direct Healthcare Costs
 
-- **Direct Healthcare Expenditures:** $8.5 trillion, representing the cost of medical treatments, medications, hospital stays, and other healthcare services.
+- **Direct Annual Healthcare Expenditures:** $8.5 trillion, representing the cost of medical treatments, medications, hospital stays, and other healthcare services.
 
 ## Indirect Economic Losses
 
-- **Indirect Economic Losses:** $4.7 trillion, reflecting the broader economic impact of diseases on productivity and output.
+- **Indirect Annual Economic Losses:** $4.7 trillion, reflecting the broader economic impact of diseases on productivity and output.
 
 ## Economic Valuation of YLL and DALYs
 
+The value assigned to a Year of Life Lost (YLL) and a Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) can vary significantly depending on the context, purpose of the valuation, and the economic framework applied. These values are used in health economics to inform public health policy, prioritize healthcare interventions, and allocate resources efficiently. The methodology and the specific value can differ by country, healthcare system, and the economic conditions of the area under consideration.
+
+### Value of a YLL
+
+The value of a YLL typically reflects the economic loss associated with premature mortality. This can be based on potential future earnings lost due to early death or the willingness to pay to reduce the risk of dying prematurely. The approach can vary:
+
+- **Human Capital Approach:** Often calculates lost future earnings, sometimes adjusted for factors like expected work-life years remaining and productivity growth rates.
+- **Value of Statistical Life (VSL):** Based on individuals' willingness to pay for marginal reductions in their risk of dying. VSL is widely used in policy settings and can vary greatly between countries and within countries over time, often ranging from a few million to tens of millions of dollars.
+
+### Value of a DALY
+
+The value of a DALY attempts to quantify the burden of both morbidity and mortality. It integrates the value of life years lost due to premature death and the value of life years lived with disability. Valuing a DALY can follow similar principles to valuing a YLL but also considers the costs and quality of life associated with living with disabilities and diseases. Like YLL, the valuation methods can include:
+
+- **Cost of Illness (COI):** Incorporates direct medical costs, indirect costs like lost productivity, and sometimes intangible costs related to pain and suffering.
+- **Willingness to Pay (WTP):** Estimates based on how much individuals are willing to pay for interventions that reduce the risk of illness or disability.
+
+### Typical Values
+
+While specific monetary values can vary widely, a common approach in international health policy analysis is to value a DALY at 1 to 3 times the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of a country. This approach provides a benchmark that adjusts for the economic conditions of the country. For instance, in a country with a GDP per capita of $50,000, a DALY might be valued between $50,000 and $150,000.
+
+
 ### Economic Valuation of Excess Mortality (YLL)
 
 To monetize YLL, we adopt a conservative value that reflects the economic loss due to premature mortality. Assuming an average income approach or a statistical value of life approach, we might assign a figure like $100,000 per YLL. If we base our calculation on the WHO's reported 63 million excess deaths annually:
@@ -24,7 +45,7 @@ For DALYs, which combine YLL with Years Lived with Disability (YLD), we use a si
 
 - **DALY Economic Valuation:** $100,000 per DALY * 1.68 billion DALYs.
 
-## Total Economic Impact: Calculations
+## Total Annual Economic Impact: Calculations
 
 For YLL, assuming an average of 10 years lost per death, and for DALYs, directly applying the $100,000 valuation:
 
@@ -38,7 +59,7 @@ The calculations incorporating economic valuations for Years of Life Lost (YLL)
 - **Economic Impact of Excess Mortality (YLL):** $63 trillion, based on the valuation of years of life lost due to premature mortality.
 - **Economic Impact of Morbidity and Disability (DALYs):** $168 trillion, reflecting the combined cost of premature death and living with disability.
 
-This leads to a **Total Economic Impact** of the global disease burden of approximately $244.2 trillion. This total encompasses:
+This leads to a **Total Annual Economic Impact** of the global disease burden of approximately $244.2 trillion. This total encompasses:
 
 - Direct Healthcare Costs: $8.5 trillion
 - Indirect Economic Losses: $4.7 trillion

docs/treaty/logical-treaty.md

@@ -31,7 +31,6 @@ Here is the logical proof that signing this accord is the most rational thing yo
 
 By combining the power of AI, the resources of global crowdfunding, and the collective wisdom of the world’s people, we can transform the fight against chronic disease. The resulting breakthroughs will improve health, extend lives, boost economies, and benefit every nation on Earth.
 
-
 # Cost of War
 
 The direct and indirect costs of war come out to [$74,259](cost-of-war.md) per person over an 80-year lifespan.
@@ -40,9 +39,13 @@ The direct and indirect costs of war come out to [$74,259](cost-of-war.md) per p
 
 Reducing spending on war by 1% annually would reduce the per-person costs by [$22,969](savings-from-1-percent-less-war.md) over an 80-year lifespan.
 
+# Cost of Disease
+
+The **$244 trillion** total global annual cost of disease is a comprehensive measure that encompasses direct healthcare costs, indirect economic losses, and the $100k valuation of a Year of Life Lost (YLL) and a $100k valuation Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALYs).
+
 # Redirecting 1% of Military Spending to Healthcare Innovation
 
-The global cost of conflict is staggering, not just in human lives but also in economic terms. By redirecting just 1% of war spending each year to using AI to automate clinical research and personalized, preventive, precision medicine over 80 years, we would save lives, reduce disability, and significantly impact the global economy.  The monetary benefit of this shift would be approximately [$1,235,443](value-of-automating-research.md) per person over 80 years.
+ By redirecting just 1% of war spending each year to using AI to automate clinical research and personalized, preventive, precision medicine over 80 years, we would save lives, reduce disability, and significantly impact the global economy.  The monetary benefit of this shift would be approximately [$1,235,443](value-of-automating-research.md) per person over 80 years.
 
 # Total Net Benefit of Less War and More Cures