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import { Callout } from "nextra/components"; | ||
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# Model Forge Quickstart | ||
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The [Allora Model Forge Competition](https://forge.allora.network) is an open-source hackathon where participants attempt to create the best model for a given [topic](/devs/topic-creators/topic-life-cycle) on the Allora Network. | ||
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- Inferences are submitted to the Allora Network. | ||
- Participants are scored based on the accuracy of their model compared to the ground truth, and rewarded accordingly. | ||
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## Topics | ||
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The Allora Network is categorized into distinct [topics](/devs/topic-creators/how-to-create-topic) that serve as schelling-points for model-makers to submit inferences on. | ||
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Topics are assigned an ID and categorized by a specific Target Variable, Epoch, Loss Method, and Metadata. Let's quickly explain each in the context of the Forge Competition: | ||
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- **Topic ID**: A unique identifier for the topic that participants will need to submit inferences on. | ||
- **Target Variable**: The asset or asset pair that models are trying to predict for | ||
- E.g. `ETH`, `USDC/ETH`. | ||
- **Epoch**: A discrete period during which inferences and forecasts are submitted, and rewards are distributed. | ||
- Epochs are defined in blocks on the Network | ||
- Each epoch provides a timeframe for evaluating and scoring the performance of workers and reputers. | ||
- In the Forge Competition, epochs are are abstracted into universal timeframes, e.g. `5min`, `1hr`, `1day`. | ||
- **Loss Function**: Measures how far off your model's predictions are from the actual values | ||
- For all topics in the Forge Competition, the loss function is [`Mean Squared Error`](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_error). | ||
- **Metadata**: Additional information about the topic, including the financial indicator, abstracted epoch length, and target variable. | ||
- E.g. ETH 5min Volatility Prediction | ||
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<Callout> | ||
[Additional fields that define a given topic](/devs/topic-creators/how-to-create-topic) can be pulled using the following [`allorad`](/devs/get-started/model-forge#download-the-allorad-cli-tool) command: | ||
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```bash | ||
allorad query emissions topic <topic-id> --node <node-url> | ||
``` | ||
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- `node-rpc` is the RPC URL of the Allora Network node you are querying. | ||
</Callout> | ||
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### Competition Topics | ||
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1. [5min ETH Price Prediction](https://forge.allora.network/competitions/1) | ||
2. [5min USDC/ETH Volume Prediction](https://forge.allora.network/competitions/2) | ||
3. [5min ETH Volatility Prediction](https://forge.allora.network/competitions/3) | ||
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| Topic ID | Topic | Target Variable | Epoch | Loss Function | Metadata | | ||
|----------|-------|----------------|--------|---------------|-----------| | ||
| 13 | ETH Price Prediction | `ETH` | `5min` | Mean Squared Error | ETH 5min Price Prediction | | ||
| Coming Soon | USDC/ETH Volume Prediction | `USDC/ETH` | `5min` | Mean Squared Error | USDC/ETH 5min Volume Prediction | | ||
| 15 | ETH Volatility Prediction | `ETH` | `5min` | Mean Squared Error | ETH 5min Volatility Prediction | | ||
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## Getting Started | ||
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### Creating a Wallet | ||
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To get started, you'll need to create a wallet on the Allora Network. | ||
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#### Download the `allorad` CLI Tool | ||
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Open your terminal and run the following command to install the `allorad` CLI tool. | ||
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```bash | ||
curl -sSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/allora-network/allora-chain/main/install.sh | bash -s -- v0.8.0 | ||
``` | ||
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#### Create a Wallet | ||
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Run the following command to create a wallet. | ||
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```bash | ||
allorad keys add <key-name> | ||
``` | ||
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Save your key name, wallet address, and mnemonic in a secure location. You will need this to submit inferences to the Allora Network. | ||
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### Register for the Competition | ||
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To register for the competition, go to the [Sign Up](https://vk4z45e3hne.typeform.com/to/ypA2Yl1J?utm_source=landing-page&typeform-source=forge.allora.network) page. | ||
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Fill out the form and submit your application. | ||
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<Callout> | ||
Input your wallet address that you created in the previous step in the `Allora Wallet Address` field. | ||
</Callout> | ||
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<Callout type="warning"> | ||
Although a discord account is not required to register, participants with a discord account will be able to join exclusive channels in the Allora Discord server to get priorityaccess to help from the Allora Labs team and other participants. | ||
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Join the Allora Discord server [here](https://discord.gg/allora). | ||
</Callout> | ||
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### Successful Registration | ||
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Once you've been notified that you've been accepted into the competition: | ||
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1. Connect your wallet to the [Allora Forge](forge.allora.network) site. | ||
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 | ||
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2. You should see an `eligible` status in the top left corner of the screen once connected. | ||
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 | ||
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Congratulations! You're now registered for the Allora Model Forge Competition. | ||
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## Model Creation | ||
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If your registration is successful, start building your model and preparing it for inference submission to the network. | ||
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We've built out some tools to help you get started with model creation. These models are optimized for price prediction, but can be used for other topics as well. | ||
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1. [Basic Coin Prediction Node](https://github.com/allora-network/basic-coin-prediction-node) | ||
- Features: | ||
- Optimized for price prediction | ||
- Easy to connect to the Allora Network | ||
- Built on top of the [Allora Offchain Node](https://github.com/allora-network/allora-offchain-node) | ||
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- Downsides: | ||
- Limited Model Types | ||
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2. [Allora MDK](https://github.com/allora-network/allora-model-maker) | ||
- Features: | ||
- Large set of regression strategies to choose from | ||
- Easier to customize for volatility and volume predictions | ||
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-Downsides: | ||
- More complex steps to connect to the Allora Network | ||
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We offer a comprehensive set of documentation for the [Allora MDK](/devs/workers/deploy-worker/allora-mdk) and [Basic Coin Prediction Node](/devs/workers/walkthroughs/walkthrough-price-prediction-worker) for you to dive into. | ||
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## Leaderboard | ||
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The leaderboard is a live-updating list of the top performing models in the competition. Go to the competition page for the specific topic you've entered to view the leaderboard. | ||
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1. [5min ETH Price Prediction](https://forge.allora.network/competitions/1) | ||
2. [5min USDC/ETH Volume Prediction](https://forge.allora.network/competitions/2) | ||
3. [5min ETH Volatility Prediction](https://forge.allora.network/competitions/3) | ||
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<Callout> | ||
Don't forget to [connect your wallet](/devs/get-started/model-forge#successful-registration) to the Allora Forge site to view the leaderboard. | ||
</Callout> | ||
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## Detailed Performance Metrics | ||
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We've built out an [Allora Explorer](explorer.allora.network) that displays performance metrics to help you evaluate the success of your model. These metrics are used to score your model in the competition. | ||
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Steps: | ||
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1. Connect your wallet to the Allora Explorer | ||
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 | ||
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2. Click `Your Topics` | ||
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 | ||
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3. Click on a topic to view your performance metrics | ||
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 | ||
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- Your `Score` and `ALLO Earned` indicate your overall performance in the topic. |
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