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Expand Up @@ -59,3 +59,4 @@ rosa-todo.txt
biclarwww/
test.Rmd
LisboaAML_COPERNICUS_clip.tif
paper/PaperCEUS/subm/
13 changes: 7 additions & 6 deletions paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -283,9 +283,9 @@ An equation was then used to calculate emission factors for the two types of fue
{EF}_{fuel,l_{trip},speed} = a + b\cdot {speed} + c\cdot l_{trip}
\end{equation}

Emission factors are estimated for the following air pollutants: CO, NO~X~, VOC, and PM. Emission factors of the main greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO~2~, CH~4~ and N~2~O, converted in CO~2~eq by the following relationship[^9]: $EF_{CO_2eq} = EF_{CO_2} + 28\cdot EF_{CH_4} + 265\cdot EF_{N_2O}$.
Emission factors are estimated for the following air pollutants: CO, NO~X~, VOC, and PM~10~. Emission factors of the main greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO~2~, CH~4~ and N~2~O, converted in CO~2~eq by the following relationship[^9]: $EF_{CO_2eq} = EF_{CO_2} + 28\cdot EF_{CH_4} + 265\cdot EF_{N_2O}$.
The CH~4~ and N~2~O emission factors do not vary with travel speed.
The PM10 emission factor does not vary with trip distance.
The PM~10~ emission factor does not vary with trip distance.

The used values consider that 64% of the car fleet was diesel in 2022[^6]. In addition, we assumed an occupancy rate of 1.6 passengers *per* car [@IMOB].
Finally, the final emissions for each trip ($E_{pollutant}$, in g/trip) are derived from the equation \ref{eq:emissaoauto}.
Expand All @@ -300,7 +300,7 @@ Finally, the final emissions for each trip ($E_{pollutant}$, in g/trip) are deri
Regarding PT, we considered the emission factor values reported in the environmental and sustainability reports of the PT operators in the LMA [@Carris2019s; @Metro2019s; @CP2019s; @Transtejo2014].
In particular, for the urban train and tram -- with 100% electric traction -- only CO~2~eq emissions were considered (resulting from the production of electricity, considering a "well-to-tank" approach), since the other pollutants are not emitted locally.

The conversion of avoided emissions into avoided welfare loss and respective monetary valuation was based on the EU Guide to Cost-benefit Analysis [@EuropeanCommission2014] and the best up-to-date reference values for the various gases [@EuropeanCommission2014; @bickel2006; @UNITE]: 8.44 €/ton for CO, 2,867.85 €/ton for NO~X~, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM10, 7,169.62 €/ton for VOC and 35.85 €/ton for CO~2~eq.
The conversion of avoided emissions into avoided welfare loss and respective monetary valuation was based on the EU Guide to Cost-benefit Analysis [@EuropeanCommission2014] and the best up-to-date reference values for the various gases [@EuropeanCommission2014; @bickel2006; @UNITE]: 8.44 €/ton for CO, 2,867.85 €/ton for NO~X~, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM~10~, 7,169.62 €/ton for VOC and 35.85 €/ton for CO~2~eq.
The social impacts are in avoided premature mortality. This result is finally monetized using the *Statistical Value of Life* for Portugal: €3,055,358/fatality [@ANSR2021].
We updated all the monetary reference values of the literature based on the annual inflation rate in Portugal for 2022[^7], and our 10-years estimations assumed a discount rate of 5% and inflation of 3%.
See [Research Data](#research-data) for all the input values we used.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -451,7 +451,8 @@ knitr::kable(summaryall,
```

<!-- FOR OTHER PAPER: separate the Socio impacts from the Environmental ones? -->
Shifting from car to cycling in combination with PT can reduce annual CO~2~eq emissions by 14,000 to 36,000 tons per year.
Shifting from car to cycling in combination with PT can reduce annual CO~2~eq emissions by 11,500 to 28,500 tons per year.
These figures represent a 2.7% reduction in Lisbon's transport emissions [@LisboaENova], a small but important component of wider transport decarbonization measures.
The 10-year socio-environmental benefits account for €125 million to €325 million, depending on the cycling targets.

The environmental impacts represent less than 2% of the socio-environmental benefits (in value) from replacing car trips to bicycle in first-and-last legs.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -494,14 +495,14 @@ The methods are reproducible and based on open source software, which can be app
By making the research process publicly accessible in a code repository (see [Research Data](#research-data)), it enables the replication of similar estimates for socio-environmental impacts, resulting from a modal shift from car to bicycle in combination with PT, in other metropolitan areas. -->


## Acknowledgements {.unnumbered}
# Acknowledgements {.unnumbered}
[*blind*]
<!-- This research was funded by the Lisbon's Metropolitan Department of Transport (TML - Transportes Metropolitanos de Lisboa, E.M.T., S.A.), under the *biclaR* Project. -->
<!-- This work is part of the research activity carried out at Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS) and has been funded by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT), Portugal in the framework of project UIDB/04625/2020. -->
<!-- The authors thank Thomas Götschi (HEAT for Cycling) for providing access to _HaaS_ tool, which is under development. -->


## Research data {.unnumbered}
# Research data {.unnumbered}
The data and the code to reproduce the results will be made available upon publication.

# References {.unnumbered}
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44 changes: 26 additions & 18 deletions paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.tex
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Expand Up @@ -418,17 +418,17 @@ \subsection{Assessing socio-environmental
\end{equation}

Emission factors are estimated for the following air pollutants: CO,
NO\textsubscript{X}, VOC, and PM. Emission factors of the main
greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO\textsubscript{2},
NO\textsubscript{X}, VOC, and PM\textsubscript{10}. Emission factors of
the main greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO\textsubscript{2},
CH\textsubscript{4} and N\textsubscript{2}O, converted in
CO\textsubscript{2}eq by the following relationship\footnote{The weights
correspond to the Global Warming Potentials (GWP) defined for a
100-year period by the IPCC in its
\href{https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/}{5th Assessment Report}.}:
\(EF_{CO_2eq} = EF_{CO_2} + 28\cdot EF_{CH_4} + 265\cdot EF_{N_2O}\).
The CH\textsubscript{4} and N\textsubscript{2}O emission factors do not
vary with travel speed. The PM10 emission factor does not vary with trip
distance.
vary with travel speed. The PM\textsubscript{10} emission factor does
not vary with trip distance.

The used values consider that 64\% of the car fleet was diesel in
2022\footnote{See
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -456,13 +456,13 @@ \subsection{Assessing socio-environmental
Analysis (Sartori et al., 2014) and the best up-to-date reference values
for the various gases (Bickel et al., 2006; Nash et al., 2003; Sartori
et al., 2014): 8.44 €/ton for CO, 2,867.85 €/ton for
NO\textsubscript{X}, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM10, 7,169.62 €/ton for VOC
and 35.85 €/ton for CO\textsubscript{2}eq. The social impacts are in
avoided premature mortality. This result is finally monetized using the
\emph{Statistical Value of Life} for Portugal: €3,055,358/fatality
(Silva et al., 2021). We updated all the monetary reference values of
the literature based on the annual inflation rate in Portugal for
2022\footnote{See
NO\textsubscript{X}, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM\textsubscript{10}, 7,169.62
€/ton for VOC and 35.85 €/ton for CO\textsubscript{2}eq. The social
impacts are in avoided premature mortality. This result is finally
monetized using the \emph{Statistical Value of Life} for Portugal:
€3,055,358/fatality (Silva et al., 2021). We updated all the monetary
reference values of the literature based on the annual inflation rate in
Portugal for 2022\footnote{See
\href{https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE\&xpgid=ipc}{Statistics
Portugal tool for inflation rate estimates between years}.}, and our
10-years estimations assumed a discount rate of 5\% and inflation of
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -594,9 +594,12 @@ \section{Results and Discussion}\label{results-and-discussion}}
\end{table}

Shifting from car to cycling in combination with PT can reduce annual
CO\textsubscript{2}eq emissions by 14,000 to 36,000 tons per year. The
10-year socio-environmental benefits account for €125 million to €325
million, depending on the cycling targets.
CO\textsubscript{2}eq emissions by 11,500 to 28,500 tons per year. These
figures represent a 2.7\% reduction in Lisbon's transport emissions
(Lisboa E-Nova, 2023), a small but important component of wider
transport decarbonization measures. The 10-year socio-environmental
benefits account for €125 million to €325 million, depending on the
cycling targets.

The environmental impacts represent less than 2\% of the
socio-environmental benefits (in value) from replacing car trips to
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -665,14 +668,14 @@ \section{Conclusion}\label{conclusion}}
decarbonization of transport systems internationally.

\hypertarget{acknowledgements}{%
\subsection*{Acknowledgements}\label{acknowledgements}}
\addcontentsline{toc}{subsection}{Acknowledgements}
\section*{Acknowledgements}\label{acknowledgements}}
\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{Acknowledgements}

{[}\emph{blind}{]}

\hypertarget{research-data}{%
\subsection*{Research data}\label{research-data}}
\addcontentsline{toc}{subsection}{Research data}
\section*{Research data}\label{research-data}}
\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{Research data}

The data and the code to reproduce the results will be made available
upon publication.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -761,6 +764,11 @@ \section*{References}\label{references}}
\emph{15}(6), 486--499.
\url{https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2020.1765223}

\leavevmode\vadjust pre{\hypertarget{ref-LisboaENova}{}}%
Lisboa E-Nova. (2023). \emph{{Observatórios Lisboa - Infos Emissões
Gases com Efeito Estufa}}. {Agência de Energia e Ambiente de Lisboa}.
\url{https://observatorios-lisboa.pt/info_emissoes.html}

\leavevmode\vadjust pre{\hypertarget{ref-Lovelace2022exploring}{}}%
Lovelace, R., Félix, R., \& Carlino, D. (2022a). Exploring jittering and
routing options for converting origin-destination data into route
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Expand Up @@ -305,3 +305,12 @@ @article{vanmil_insights_2021
annotation = {12 citations (Crossref) [2023-11-28]},
file = {/home/robin/Zotero/storage/IYMB9TRL/van Mil et al. - 2021 - Insights into factors affecting the combined bicyc.pdf}
}

@misc{LisboaENova,
title={{Observatórios Lisboa - Infos Emissões Gases com Efeito Estufa}},
url={https://observatorios-lisboa.pt/info_emissoes.html},
publisher={{Agência de Energia e Ambiente de Lisboa}},
author={{Lisboa E-Nova}},
year={2023},
urldate={2023-09-15}
}

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