The Pep Guardiola Effect

Abstract

This study examines how elite football has evolved since Pep Guardiola's arrival at Manchester City in 2016. Using data from the top five European leagues (2017/18–2024/25), we applied PCA for dimensionality reduction and t-SNE clustering to identify key style-related statistics and compare Manchester City's tactical evolution to other top teams. We investigate whether successful teams increasingly mirror Guardiola’s approach, analyzing the sustainability of dominant styles. Our findings aim to reveal whether modern football undergoes cyclical stylistic shifts and to what extent managers, players, and play styles shape the game’s evolution.

Project Structure

ThePepEffect/
│-- data/                   # Raw and processed datasets
│-- scripts/
│   │-- FBRefScraper.py     # Script for scraping football data
│-- analysis/
│   │-- ThePepEffect.ipynb   # Jupyter Notebook for analysis

Prerequisites

Make sure you have the following installed:

• Python 3.11+
• uv for dependency management

Installation

1. Clone the Repo

git clone https://github.com/Football-Investigations/ThePepEffect.git

2. Install Dependencies

uv install

3a. Run the Data Collection Script

uv run scripts/FBRefScraper.py

3b. Run the Analysis

Find the Jupyter Notebook in the analysis directory, and run the cells.

License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.