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author: Dave Aronson | ||
date: 2024-08-10 | ||
layout: blog-post | ||
permalink: blog/incredible-shrinking-computer | ||
section: Blog | ||
tags: predictions | ||
title: The Incredible Shrinking Computer | ||
--- | ||
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||
<div style="align-items: center; display: flex; justify-content: center; text-align: center"> | ||
<figure> | ||
<img src="/assets/img/mainframe.jpg" height="200" | ||
alt="man using a mainframe console, with mainframe in background"> | ||
<figcaption><span style="font-size: .4em">Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/aaronpk/6063447236</span></figcaption> | ||
</figure> | ||
<span style="font-size: 5em">➔</span> | ||
<figure> | ||
<img src="/assets/img/tiny-server.jpg" height="200" | ||
alt="very small computer next to soda can and laptop"> | ||
<figcaption><span style="font-size: .4em">Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/aaronpk/6063447236</span></figcaption> | ||
</figure> | ||
<span style="font-size: 5em">➔</span> | ||
<span style="font-size: 10em"> ?</span> | ||
</div> | ||
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||
This is a prediction I have made verbally | ||
many times over the past several years, | ||
but recently had occasion to write down, | ||
so I figured I may as well record it here for posterity. | ||
|
||
===8<---cut-here--- | ||
|
||
Within a few decades, for most individuals, | ||
a "computer" will be a small box | ||
that could fit easily in a pocket | ||
or be worn like a watch or pendant. | ||
Even most of that thing’s size will be | ||
physical protection, battery, a medium for personalization (the surface), | ||
and just making it big enough not to be lost so easily. | ||
The actual computer itself will be | ||
a single smallish chip, or a few of them on a very small motherboard. | ||
This will include at least the RAM, CPU, mass storage, | ||
and some communication as below. | ||
(Not sure about GPU; | ||
that may be delegated to the various form factors as below.) | ||
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||
Now you may be wondering, how would we _use_ such a tiny thing? | ||
Their watch, phone, tablet, laptop, and desktop, | ||
and possibly further things such as VR glasses, brain implants, | ||
plus things we have yet to imagine, | ||
will be basically nothing but docking stations _for the same "computer"_, | ||
to allow for various sizes and types of human interface. | ||
(Including possibly taking over GPU duties.) | ||
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||
Said chip won’t even have to be physically inserted or attached, | ||
but communicate over something basically equivalent to | ||
high speed very short range Bluetooth. | ||
(Of course options would exist for use-cases where | ||
it would be further from the user, | ||
akin to today’s Bluetooth speakers.) | ||
We’ll be back to having one "computer" per person, | ||
though maybe additional ones issued by work, | ||
and of course we nerds would still want to play with different kinds. | ||
There will still be different kinds (or OSes) better suited to different tasks, | ||
but most people will still stick with one. | ||
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||
They’ll be cheap enough that you don’t need to do something like | ||
install Linux on an old one to make it affordable | ||
(versus the ones from Apple, with MacOS installed, | ||
or one that can run Windows reasonably performantly), | ||
though of course Open Source enthusiasts will still do so. | ||
Within a few more decades they’ll be cheap enough that | ||
your kids might get them for free in their breakfast cereal. | ||
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(Servers are a different matter. | ||
Just as with today’s machines, | ||
one of these may be enough for a small company’s shared-IT needs, | ||
while larger companies may need multiple, or something beefier, | ||
and there will be more and more "data centers" and VM providers. | ||
This will NOT shrink them, as demand will grow to match or exceed supply.) | ||
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===8<---cut-here--- | ||
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(Note, this is not including | ||
any breakthroughs in _quantum_ computing. | ||
I don't foresee much happening there | ||
that would affect this much very soon. | ||
There may be helpful breakthroughs in | ||
room-temperature superconductivity, | ||
but thermal noise remains a very thorny issue, | ||
never mind larger physical vibrations.) | ||
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So what do _you_ think? | ||
Write your thoughts below! |
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