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---
author: Dave Aronson
date: 2024-08-10
layout: blog-post
permalink: blog/incredible-shrinking-computer
section: Blog
tags: predictions
title: The Incredible Shrinking Computer
---

<div style="align-items: center; display: flex; justify-content: center; text-align: center">
<figure>
<img src="/assets/img/mainframe.jpg" height="200"
alt="man using a mainframe console, with mainframe in background">
<figcaption><span style="font-size: .4em">Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/aaronpk/6063447236</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<span style="font-size: 5em">&#10132;</span>
<figure>
<img src="/assets/img/tiny-server.jpg" height="200"
alt="very small computer next to soda can and laptop">
<figcaption><span style="font-size: .4em">Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/aaronpk/6063447236</span></figcaption>
</figure>
<span style="font-size: 5em">&#10132;</span>
<span style="font-size: 10em">&nbsp;?</span>
</div>

This is a prediction I have made verbally
many times over the past several years,
but recently had occasion to write down,
so I figured I may as well record it here for posterity.

===8<---cut-here---

Within a few decades, for most individuals,
a "computer" will be a small box
that could fit easily in a pocket
or be worn like a watch or pendant.&nbsp;
Even most of that thing’s size will be
physical protection, battery, a medium for personalization (the surface),
and just making it big enough not to be lost so easily.&nbsp;
The actual computer itself will be
a single smallish chip, or a few of them on a very small motherboard.&nbsp;
This will include at least the RAM, CPU, mass storage,
and some communication as below.&nbsp;
(Not sure about GPU;
that may be delegated to the various form factors as below.)

Now you may be wondering, how would we _use_ such a tiny thing?&nbsp;
Their watch, phone, tablet, laptop, and desktop,
and possibly further things such as VR glasses, brain implants,
plus things we have yet to imagine,
will be basically nothing but docking stations _for the same "computer"_,
to allow for various sizes and types of human interface.&nbsp;
(Including possibly taking over GPU duties.)

Said chip won’t even have to be physically inserted or attached,
but communicate over something basically equivalent to
high speed very short range Bluetooth.&nbsp;
(Of course options would exist for use-cases where
it would be further from the user,
akin to today’s Bluetooth speakers.)&nbsp;
We’ll be back to having one "computer" per person,
though maybe additional ones issued by work,
and of course we nerds would still want to play with different kinds.&nbsp;
There will still be different kinds (or OSes) better suited to different tasks,
but most people will still stick with one.

They’ll be cheap enough that you don’t need to do something like
install Linux on an old one to make it affordable
(versus the ones from Apple, with MacOS installed,
or one that can run Windows reasonably performantly),
though of course Open Source enthusiasts will still do so.&nbsp;
Within a few more decades they’ll be cheap enough that
your kids might get them for free in their breakfast cereal.

(Servers are a different matter.&nbsp;
Just as with today’s machines,
one of these may be enough for a small company’s shared-IT needs,
while larger companies may need multiple, or something beefier,
and there will be more and more "data centers" and VM providers.&nbsp;
This will NOT shrink them, as demand will grow to match or exceed supply.)

===8<---cut-here---

(Note, this is not including
any breakthroughs in _quantum_ computing.&nbsp;
I don't foresee much happening there
that would affect this much very soon.&nbsp;
There may be helpful breakthroughs in
room-temperature superconductivity,
but thermal noise remains a very thorny issue,
never mind larger physical vibrations.)

So what do _you_ think?&nbsp;
Write your thoughts below!
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