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Difference in the estimation of the AR noise variance #164

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lionelkusch opened this issue Feb 24, 2025 · 0 comments
Open

Difference in the estimation of the AR noise variance #164

lionelkusch opened this issue Feb 24, 2025 · 0 comments
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method implementation Question regarding methods implementations

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@lionelkusch
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lionelkusch commented Feb 24, 2025

The formula from wikipedia for the estimation of the variance of an AR process is:
$VAR(X_t)=\frac{\sigma_\epsilon^2}{1-\phi^2}$ where $\sigma_\epsilon$ is the standard deviation of the noise and $\phi\ is the coefficient of autoregression.
There is a small difference with the actual implementation:

sigma_hat[:] = sigma_eps / np.sqrt((1 - np.dot(coef_ar, rho_ar[1:])))

$VAR(X_t)=\frac{\sigma_\epsilon}{1-B.\Phi}$ where $\sigma_\epsilon$ is the standard deviation of the noise, $B_n$ are the autocovariance coefficients and $\Phi$ the autocorrelation coefficients .

          This would deserve a small study. I'd rather remove the comment here and open an issue.

Originally posted by @bthirion in #127 (comment)

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