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2018-11-26T07:14:07 |
false |
false |
closed |
0 |
939 |
false |
4 |
true |
Can you create a method to predict future geopolitical outcomes that is better than current state-of-the-art methods? |
Office of Director of National Intelligence - Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity |
false |
ideation |
09/07/2018 02:00 PM |
03/07/2018 12:00 AM |
FY18 |
$200,000 |
Rebecca Allegar |
Other |
1552|4901 |
No |
No |
Software and apps |
172840 |
Externally |
Yes |
Scientific |
20000 |
1st Place |
15000 |
2nd Place |
30000 |
Star Forecasters - Bonus |
Bonus split amongst the second - fifth place finisher if they also beat the top HFC score and beat the baseline |
3rd Place |
10000 |
4th Place |
7000 |
4000 |
5th Place |
25000 |
Domain / Region Pairing |
5 Prizes @ $5k each for best in Domain / Region pairing |
Best Undergraduate |
4000 |
Best performance by an undergraduate who is not in the top five |
Milestone Performance |
30000 |
Best performance during the milestone periods, there are three of these throughout the challenge. Prize will be split among those who meet minimum thresholds for each of the milestone periods. |
Prizes will be awarded for unique opportunities to be defined throughout the course of the challenge |
15000 |
Interim Prizes |
Bonus awarded to the first place finisher if they also beat the top HFC score and beat the baseline |
40000 |
Ultimate Predictor - Bonus |
false |
true |
Decision makers rely on the Intelligence Community to provide accurate and relevant forecasts, and IARPA is working to identify methods to maximize the quality of these forecasts. IARPA’s Geopolitical Forecasting (GF) Challenge invites individuals or teams to develop innovative solutions and methods for integrating crowdsourced forecasts and other data into accurate, timely forecasts of geopolitical events. Solvers will be competing against each other and in parallel with a similarly structured research program funded by IARPA. Overall, IARPA is seeking novel approaches that can help further current methodologies and improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts. Over the course of seven months, the GF Challenge solvers will be asked to produce forecasts to a series of questions like: <div id="about-questions"> <ul> <li></li> <li>Who will win the upcoming presidential election in Egypt?</li> <li>What will the spot price of Brent Crude oil be on [date]?</li> </ul> </div> In order to answer these questions, solvers will be given access to a continuously updated stream of forecast judgments produced by a crowd of human forecasters and will be allowed to use other data sources to produce their solutions. The challenge presents an opportunity for individuals and teams to earn prizes by creating methods that successfully forecast a wide variety of geopolitical events, such as political elections, international conflict, disease outbreaks, and macro-economic indicators. |
Launched |
0 |
false |
0 |
true |
false |
false |
false |
269 |
true |
Geopolitical Forecasting Challenge |
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/challenge/geopolitical-forecasting-challenge/ |
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