-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
Copy pathindex.html
286 lines (259 loc) · 18.7 KB
/
index.html
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
<!doctype html>
<html>
<head>
<meta charset="utf-8">
<meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="chrome=1">
<title>MBAd6224</title> <!-- shows on the browser tab; formerly had, "by denfc"-->
<link rel="stylesheet" href="stylesheets/styles.css">
<link rel="stylesheet" href="stylesheets/github-light.css">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width">
<!--[if lt IE 9]>
<script src="//html5shiv.googlecode.com/svn/trunk/html5.js"></script>
<![endif]-->
<!-- dfc 16 July 2016: wanted MathJax for tables, but MathJax doesn't do tables identically with LaTeX; still way cool
<script type="text/javascript" async
src="https://cdn.mathjax.org/mathjax/latest/MathJax.js?config=TeX-MML-AM_CHTML">
</script>-->
</head>
<body>
<div class="wrapper">
<!-- little box to download the files that make the project website; stays as page scrolls, but maybe 'cause of "header" -->
<!-- <header>
<h1>MBAd6224</h1>
<p></p>
</header> duplicate of ending "header" 8 lines below"
-->
<!-- <p class="view"> <a href="https://github.com/denfc/MBAd6224">View the Project on GitHub <small>denfc/MBAd6224</small></a></p> -->
<!--
<ul>
<li><a href="https://github.com/denfc/MBAd6224/zipball/master">Download <strong>ZIP File</strong></a></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/denfc/MBAd6224/tarball/master">Download <strong>TAR Ball</strong></a></li>
<li><a href="https://github.com/denfc/MBAd6224">View On <strong>GitHub</strong></a></li>
</ul>
</header>
-->
<!-- <section> creates a column on the rhs of the page -->
<div align="right">
17 October 2016<br> <small>[most recent page update]</small>
</div>
<!-- Test TeX: $$\int_0^1=1/2$$ -->
<h1>MBAd6224: Decision Making and Data Analysis</h1>
<h2> Fall 2016, Denis F. Cioffi, Ph.D. </h2>
<h3> <em>Ably assisted by</em>:</h3>
<h3>a) Anass Bayaga, Ph.D. (Operations Research)</h3>
<!-- <h3>b) Larry O'Connell, Ph.D. to be (Economics, next year)</h3> -->
<h3>b) Steward Huang, Ph.D. (Applied Statistics) </h3>
<p> </p>
<a id="MBAd6224" class="anchor" href="#mbad6224" aria-hidden="true"><span aria-hidden="true" class="octicon octicon-link"></span></a><h3>Introduction To This Page, <font color="blue"> Version 2.0</font></h3>
I have always enjoyed having a web page set up for my courses (e.g., <a href="http://267.cioffi.us">267.cioffi.us</a>). In the four years since I last taught a full course, technology has continued to progress, but my old (very) website, <a href="http:/www.cioffi.us">www.cioffi.us</a>, has not progressed. Its current Google Drive home will not work at the end of August (and so the previous links may fail then). Before moving everything to GitHub (thanks, <a href="http://lorenabarba.com/" class="user-mention" target="_blank">Dr. Barba</a>!), I'm setting up this page for the course (and having fun doing it). Initially, the page may just list some pdf LaTeX'ed files 'cause that's how I've been working, but more to come. (dfc 1 July 2015)
<p></p>
<ol style="list-style-type:lower-latin">
<li> Structuring_224.pdf is no longer here, as expected. But what needs to be added is, "Things You Should Know How to Do." Soon, I hope.</li>
<p></p>
<li> <a href="224_Video_Notes_1--14_melted.pdf" target="_blank">My notes on the in-depth videos</a>. I wrote these notes in June as I listened carefully to the hour-long "in-depth" lectures that Dr. Wirtz created. The amount of information in these videos, by the way, first gave me the idea that students would not need to buy a single (expensive) textbook, but could supplement that information by reading from the multiple sources available on the Internet. I make the notes available, however, to give modern students an idea of how to take notes. When you look at the "Enjoy_Reading" file immediately below, you will find the first section is, "1.1 Teaching, Studying, and Learning," and it contains a link to, "The pen is mightier than the keyboard: Advantages of longhand over laptop note taking."
</li>
<p></p>
<li> <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByY6ydNOWOJaMHMyVk5tSmNoQzA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Enjoy_Reading.pdf</a>. (Material that I examined in preparing to teach the course.) In two separate assignments, you will be asked to read two or more of the articles and write a couple of pages about them. Details to come, soon.
<ol style="list-style-type:lower-roman">
<li>Many of the references above are recent, and a full statistical interpretation of scientific results involves more than we can cover in this course. This year, a long-accepted "influential psychological theory, borne out in hundreds of experiments, may have just been debunked. How can so many scientists have been so wrong?" asked <a href="http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/cover_story/2016/03/ego_depletion_an_influential_theory_in_psychology_may_have_just_been_debunked.html" target="_blank"> Engber in Slate</a> magazine (2016).
</li>
<li>In response, Sanjay Srivastava, a psychology professor at the University of Oregon, created a <a href="https://hardsci.wordpress.com/2016/08/11/everything-is-fucked-the-syllabus/" target="_blank">fictitious course</a>. Please do not be offended by the language, which is not my style, either (but I, and everyone to whom I have shown it, do find it funny; Dallal makes the same point, but without obscenity, in his book, below: "... meta-analysis is often deeply flawed"). Perhaps it is a reaction to the general pretentiousness of academe and an acknowledgment that we need knowledge and skepticism, both of which I hope you will find in this course. Most important, the papers are real, and one of them I had already chosen.
</li>
<li>The problem of "reproducibility" in computer science gives some insight into the more general problem to which the papers above refer. <a href= "https://github.com/ReScience/ReScience-article/issues/5#issuecomment-241232791" target="_blank"> Here</a> my GW colleague Dr. Barba expresses her thoughts on the language in current discussions in computer science.
</li>
<li>One way we strive for good statistics is to make sure our samples are <a href="http://www.randomization.com" target="_blank"> truly random </a>.
</li>
</ol> <!-- couldn't prevent spacing here, so added it above -->
<li> <a href="Synchronous_Sessions.html"> The Synchronous Sessions</a>. In addition to myself, the three individuals listed above will be guiding students through the material. Each student will meet synchronously, with video, with about 14 colleagues and the Synchronous Session Leader for a total of ten hours this semester.
</li>
</ol>
<!--
<div markdown="1">
My testtext with **markdown** syntax; dfc 14 July 2016, couldn't get it to work (no indent); have to rename file to index.md.
I don't know enough about jekyll and markdown to debug
</div>
-->
<p> </p>
<h3> A Word About Learning </h3>
<p>Twenty-five hundred years ago, <a href="http://www.open.edu/openlearn/education/12-famous-confucius-quotes-on-education-and-learning" target="_blank">Confucius understood learning</a>: <q>I hear and I forget. I see and I remember. I do and I understand.</q> You will succeed in this course first by working problems. The computer will handle the mechanical calculations, but you will need to give meaning to the numbers output. Most of us find statistical thinking and the language demanded non-intuitive. The more you exercise statistical thinking and language, the more you will be able to think and speak statistically. An analogy with lifting weights at the gym explains how many of us (yes, I was a student once) approach learning. If I go to the gym and watch other people lift weights, do my muscles get stronger? It’s called <q>active learning</q> for a reason: just do it!</p>
<p> </p>
<h3>The Ancient Concept Known as a Book</h3>
<p>While an isolated, static unit with a beginning, middle, and an end may still be useful as a conveyor of fiction, no book is assigned for this knowledge-based course. In our internet, open-source era, the transmission of information occurs through different specific media, but predominantly electronically. As much as I like books, I see no need to force students to purchase a textbook when material to supplement the course’s video presentations is available at no cost, or in the case of the second item referenced below, for $2.99 (its free predecessor is also available on the web). Those students focused on Health Care should find that work especially worthwhile because of the author's background and his many examples from clinical trials (and its perspective is excellent).
</p><p>
As a way to help us all, students and instructors, we will set up a reference page in Blackboard, across the entire course, where people can share particular resources they found helpful. As you can see immediately below, I have started the resources with three, well, for want of a better term, books. The first is the latest edition of the (somewhat costly) text on which the course was based originally, the second I noted above, and the third is the most modern version, an electronic, interactive, open-source compendium (from which chapters can be printed). It best represents the future of educational media, and I also recommend following David Lane on Twitter, at the <a href="https://twitter.com/LaneReport">Lane Report</a>. (dfc 20 July 2016) </p>
<!-- http://www.tutorialspoint.com/html/html_tables.htm -->
<ol style="list-style-type:disc">
<li>Book 1: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Business-Analytics-Analysis-Decision-Making/dp/1305947541/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1468542483&sr=1-1&keywords=Business+Analytics%3A+Data+Analysis+%26+Decision+Making%2C+6th+Edition" target="_blank"><em>Business Analytics: Data Analysis & Decision Making, 6th Edition</em></a>, by S. Christian Albright and Wayne L. Winston. N.B., the original recordings are based on the 4th edition, so if you decide to purchase this text, you should be able to obtain the earlier version at a much-reduced price.</li>
<li>Book 2: <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Little-Handbook-Statistical-Practice-ebook/dp/B00847SM6A#nav-subnav" target="_blank"><em>The Little Handbook of Statistical Practice</em></a>, by Gerard Dallal.</li>
<li>Book 3: <a href="http://onlinestatbook.com/2/index.html" target="_blank"><em>Online Statistics Education: An Interactive Multimedia Course of Study</em></a>, developed by Rice University (Lead Developer), University of Houston Clear Lake, and Tufts University, with David M. Lane (Rice) as Project Leader.</li>
<li> <a href= "http://libguides.gwu.edu/opentextbooks" target= "_blank"> A GW library link to open textbooks.</a></li>
<li> Another possibility for the statistics part: <a href="http://www.businessexpertpress.com/books/using-statistics-better-business-decisions" target="_blank"><em>Using Statistics for Better Business Decisions</em></a>, by Justin Bateh and Bert G. Wachsmuth. (The Kindle edition of the book is $29 and the print edition is $59.)</li>
<li>Another free online text, also with the imprimatur of Rice University: <a href="https://openstax.org/details/introductory-statistics" target="_blank"><em>Introductory Statistics</em></a>, with Senior Contributing Authors Barbara Illowsky and Susan Dean.</li>
<li>Although we are not using SPSS, I have been told that this book is useful as a reference. <a href="https://www.amazon.com/SPSS-Survival-Manual-Guide-Analysis/dp/0335262589" target="_blank"><em> SPSS Survival Manual: A Step by Step Guide to Data Analysis Using IBM SPSS</em>, 5th edition.</a>, by J Pallant.</li>
<li>One of our Synchronous Session Leaders, Laurence O'Connell, has kindly provided some notes that you may access <a href="https://drive.google.com/open?id=0ByY6ydNOWOJaYTcyN1QxNXpuR00" target="_blank"> here</a>. If you have any questions, corrections, or suggested improvements, please let us, i.e., myself and Larry, know.</li>
</ol>
<table border="2" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="5">
<caption><b>The Material, As Found in <a href="https://smart.ly/dashboard">Smart.ly</a> and the Original Book (mostly)</b></caption>
<tr>
<th>Course Week </th>
<th>Assignment Due (usually Sunday)</th>
<th>Topic</th>
<th>Chapter in Albright & Winston (4th Edition)</th>
<th>Smartly Course</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width:80px">1) 28 Aug</td>
<td></td>
<td style="width:180px">Exploring Data</td>
<td> §1-3, 2, 3</td>
<td>One-Variable Statistics; possibly Two-Variable Statistics and Data Collection, depending on the data you're exploring! </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2) 4 Sept</td>
<td>1 (numeric)</td>
<td>Probability Concepts</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>Probability Fundamentals</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3) 11 Sept</td>
<td>2 (numeric)</td>
<td>Special Probability Distributions</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>Probability Distributions</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4) 18 Sept</td>
<td>3 (numeric)</td>
<td>Decision Making Under Uncertainty</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>N/A; but look <a href="https://people.richland.edu/james/summer02/m160/decision.html" target="_blank">here</a>, from Professor Jones</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5) 25 Sept</td>
<td>4 (numeric)</td>
<td>Regression Analysis, Time Series Analysis, and Forecasting</td>
<td>10: exclude 10.2.3 (unequal variance), 10.4.2 (standard error of the estimate), 10.5.2 (portion dealing with standard error of the estimate), 10.6.3 (nonlinear transformations), 10.7 (Validation of the fit)
Skim 12. Also see <a href="http://www.sjsu.edu/faculty/gerstman/StatPrimer/anscombe1973.pdf" target="_blank">1.5-1</a> in <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/0ByY6ydNOWOJaMHMyVk5tSmNoQzA/view?usp=sharing" target="_blank">Enjoy_Reading.pdf</a></font></td>
<td>(Two-Variable Statistics); Regression Analysis</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6) 2 Oct</td>
<td>5 (numeric)</td>
<td>Optimization</td>
<td>13 (Skim 14)</td>
<td>N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7) 9 Oct</td>
<td> 6 (numeric); <font color="blue">Midterm Week</font></td>
<td>Simulation</td>
<td>15 (Skim 16) </td>
<td>N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8) 16 Oct</td>
<td><font color="blue"> Paper 1 = Assignment 7</font>
(based on reading <a href="https://wjrider.wordpress.com/2016/06/27/we-have-already-lost-to-the-chinese-in-supercomputing-good-thing-it-doesnt-matter/" target="_blank">Bill Rider's essay</a>).</td>
<td>Sampling and Sampling Distribution</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>(Data Collection); Inferential Statistics: Making Data-Driven Decisions</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>9) 23 Oct</td>
<td>A8 </td>
<td>Confidence Interval Estimation</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>Inferential Statistics: Making Data-Driven Decisions</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>10) 30 Oct</td>
<td>A9 </td>
<td>Hypothesis Testing, Part 1</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>Inferential Statistics: Making Data-Driven Decisions</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>11) 6 Nov</td>
<td>A10 </td>
<td>Advanced Hypothesis Testing</td>
<td>9 (Revisited)</td>
<td>Advanced Statistical Inference</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12) 13 Nov</td>
<td>A11 </td>
<td>Advanced Regression Analysis</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>Regression Analysis</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13) 20 Nov</td>
<td> A12 </td>
<td>Multiple Regression</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>Regression Analysis</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>14) 27 Nov </td>
<td> </td>
<td>Regression Assumptions</td>
<td> (Review Chapter 11) </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td > 30 Nov (Wednesday) </td>
<td colspan="3"> A13; <font color="blue">schedule from here open to revision</font> </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> 7 Dec (Wednesday) </td>
<td colspan="3"> A14: <font color="blue"> Paper 2.</font> </td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4">Week of 14 Dec</td>
<td><font color="blue"> Final</font>
</tr>
</table>
<p> </p>
<table border=2>
<caption><b>The grades will be assigned based on the percentages at the end of the semester, as indicated below.</b></caption>
<tr>
<td>A: 93.0%</td>
<td>A-: 90.0</td>
<td>B+: 87.0%</td>
<td>B: 83.0%</td>
<td>B-: 80.0%</td>
<td>C+: 77.0%</td>
<td>C: 73.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7">a) Numeric Assignments: 4% x 12 = 48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7">b) Papers: 10% x 2 = 20%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7">c) Exams: 16% x 2 = 32%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:right">Total: 100%</td>
<td colspan="6">
</tr>
</table>
<p> </p>
<h3>Accomodations</h3>
Any student who feels he or she may need an accommodation based on the impact of a disability should contact me privately to discuss specific needs. Please contact the Disability Support Services office at 202.994.825 Rome Hall, Suite 102,to establish eligibility and to coordinate reasonable accommodations. For additional information please refer to <a href="https://disabilitysupport.gwu.edu/" target="_blank">Disability Support Services</a>.
<p> </p>
<p><small>This page is maintained by <a href="https://github.com/denfc">denfc</a>
and hosted on GitHub Pages; <a href="https://github.com/orderedlist">orderedlist</a> created the orignal theme (that I have now mangled). </small> </p>
<!--
<footer>
<small>This page is maintained by <a href="https://github.com/denfc">denfc</a>
and hosted on GitHub Pages; <a href="https://github.com/orderedlist">orderedlist</a> created the orignal theme (that I have now mangled). </small>
</footer>
-->
<script src="javascripts/scale.fix.js"></script>
</body>
</html>