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pandemic-statespace

a Bayesian statistical support to the PoPS global pest spread model

currently using jags and the data inputs obtained for a given case study with the PoPS Global Data Acquisition notebook

Objectives

  • Expand on statistical tests of case study viability with temporal data
  • Move towards Bayesian callibration of PoPS Global
  • Benchmark model to compare performance
  • Flexible option to test new modules, incorporate additional data sources, and more!

Status

Working from a static binomial regression of model predictors to a dynamic state-space model

Current (working) models

  1. Static binomial
  2. Dynamic (temporal) binomial
  3. Dynamic binomial with interaction term
  4. Dynamic state-space (basic)

Workflow

  1. workspace: import packages, define case study-relevant fields
  2. data: import and format static and temporal data
  3. models: some work, some don't (listed)!
  4. runModel: pick a model, run it, and review intermediate outputs (convergence diagnostics and summary statistics)
  5. simResults: simulate and visualize results

Example outputs

Parameter distributions

Static simulation

Dynamic simulation