diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index bb42ba5..d0536d9 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -59,3 +59,4 @@ rosa-todo.txt biclarwww/ test.Rmd LisboaAML_COPERNICUS_clip.tif +paper/PaperCEUS/subm/ \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.Rmd b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.Rmd index e300cb7..f52bd53 100644 --- a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.Rmd +++ b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.Rmd @@ -283,9 +283,9 @@ An equation was then used to calculate emission factors for the two types of fue {EF}_{fuel,l_{trip},speed} = a + b\cdot {speed} + c\cdot l_{trip} \end{equation} -Emission factors are estimated for the following air pollutants: CO, NO~X~, VOC, and PM. Emission factors of the main greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO~2~, CH~4~ and N~2~O, converted in CO~2~eq by the following relationship[^9]: $EF_{CO_2eq} = EF_{CO_2} + 28\cdot EF_{CH_4} + 265\cdot EF_{N_2O}$. +Emission factors are estimated for the following air pollutants: CO, NO~X~, VOC, and PM~10~. Emission factors of the main greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO~2~, CH~4~ and N~2~O, converted in CO~2~eq by the following relationship[^9]: $EF_{CO_2eq} = EF_{CO_2} + 28\cdot EF_{CH_4} + 265\cdot EF_{N_2O}$. The CH~4~ and N~2~O emission factors do not vary with travel speed. -The PM10 emission factor does not vary with trip distance. +The PM~10~ emission factor does not vary with trip distance. The used values consider that 64% of the car fleet was diesel in 2022[^6]. In addition, we assumed an occupancy rate of 1.6 passengers *per* car [@IMOB]. Finally, the final emissions for each trip ($E_{pollutant}$, in g/trip) are derived from the equation \ref{eq:emissaoauto}. @@ -300,7 +300,7 @@ Finally, the final emissions for each trip ($E_{pollutant}$, in g/trip) are deri Regarding PT, we considered the emission factor values reported in the environmental and sustainability reports of the PT operators in the LMA [@Carris2019s; @Metro2019s; @CP2019s; @Transtejo2014]. In particular, for the urban train and tram -- with 100% electric traction -- only CO~2~eq emissions were considered (resulting from the production of electricity, considering a "well-to-tank" approach), since the other pollutants are not emitted locally. -The conversion of avoided emissions into avoided welfare loss and respective monetary valuation was based on the EU Guide to Cost-benefit Analysis [@EuropeanCommission2014] and the best up-to-date reference values for the various gases [@EuropeanCommission2014; @bickel2006; @UNITE]: 8.44 €/ton for CO, 2,867.85 €/ton for NO~X~, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM10, 7,169.62 €/ton for VOC and 35.85 €/ton for CO~2~eq. +The conversion of avoided emissions into avoided welfare loss and respective monetary valuation was based on the EU Guide to Cost-benefit Analysis [@EuropeanCommission2014] and the best up-to-date reference values for the various gases [@EuropeanCommission2014; @bickel2006; @UNITE]: 8.44 €/ton for CO, 2,867.85 €/ton for NO~X~, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM~10~, 7,169.62 €/ton for VOC and 35.85 €/ton for CO~2~eq. The social impacts are in avoided premature mortality. This result is finally monetized using the *Statistical Value of Life* for Portugal: €3,055,358/fatality [@ANSR2021]. We updated all the monetary reference values of the literature based on the annual inflation rate in Portugal for 2022[^7], and our 10-years estimations assumed a discount rate of 5% and inflation of 3%. See [Research Data](#research-data) for all the input values we used. @@ -451,7 +451,8 @@ knitr::kable(summaryall, ``` -Shifting from car to cycling in combination with PT can reduce annual CO~2~eq emissions by 14,000 to 36,000 tons per year. +Shifting from car to cycling in combination with PT can reduce annual CO~2~eq emissions by 11,500 to 28,500 tons per year. +These figures represent a 2.7% reduction in Lisbon's transport emissions [@LisboaENova], a small but important component of wider transport decarbonization measures. The 10-year socio-environmental benefits account for €125 million to €325 million, depending on the cycling targets. The environmental impacts represent less than 2% of the socio-environmental benefits (in value) from replacing car trips to bicycle in first-and-last legs. @@ -494,14 +495,14 @@ The methods are reproducible and based on open source software, which can be app By making the research process publicly accessible in a code repository (see [Research Data](#research-data)), it enables the replication of similar estimates for socio-environmental impacts, resulting from a modal shift from car to bicycle in combination with PT, in other metropolitan areas. --> -## Acknowledgements {.unnumbered} +# Acknowledgements {.unnumbered} [*blind*] -## Research data {.unnumbered} +# Research data {.unnumbered} The data and the code to reproduce the results will be made available upon publication. # References {.unnumbered} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.pdf b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.pdf index 7cab4da..f477f15 100644 Binary files a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.pdf and b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.pdf differ diff --git a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.tex b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.tex index 78aa31a..c8b92ec 100644 --- a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.tex +++ b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS.tex @@ -418,8 +418,8 @@ \subsection{Assessing socio-environmental \end{equation} Emission factors are estimated for the following air pollutants: CO, -NO\textsubscript{X}, VOC, and PM. Emission factors of the main -greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO\textsubscript{2}, +NO\textsubscript{X}, VOC, and PM\textsubscript{10}. Emission factors of +the main greenhouse gases (GHG) are also estimated: CO\textsubscript{2}, CH\textsubscript{4} and N\textsubscript{2}O, converted in CO\textsubscript{2}eq by the following relationship\footnote{The weights correspond to the Global Warming Potentials (GWP) defined for a @@ -427,8 +427,8 @@ \subsection{Assessing socio-environmental \href{https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/}{5th Assessment Report}.}: \(EF_{CO_2eq} = EF_{CO_2} + 28\cdot EF_{CH_4} + 265\cdot EF_{N_2O}\). The CH\textsubscript{4} and N\textsubscript{2}O emission factors do not -vary with travel speed. The PM10 emission factor does not vary with trip -distance. +vary with travel speed. The PM\textsubscript{10} emission factor does +not vary with trip distance. The used values consider that 64\% of the car fleet was diesel in 2022\footnote{See @@ -456,13 +456,13 @@ \subsection{Assessing socio-environmental Analysis (Sartori et al., 2014) and the best up-to-date reference values for the various gases (Bickel et al., 2006; Nash et al., 2003; Sartori et al., 2014): 8.44 €/ton for CO, 2,867.85 €/ton for -NO\textsubscript{X}, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM10, 7,169.62 €/ton for VOC -and 35.85 €/ton for CO\textsubscript{2}eq. The social impacts are in -avoided premature mortality. This result is finally monetized using the -\emph{Statistical Value of Life} for Portugal: €3,055,358/fatality -(Silva et al., 2021). We updated all the monetary reference values of -the literature based on the annual inflation rate in Portugal for -2022\footnote{See +NO\textsubscript{X}, 340,969.27 €/ton for PM\textsubscript{10}, 7,169.62 +€/ton for VOC and 35.85 €/ton for CO\textsubscript{2}eq. The social +impacts are in avoided premature mortality. This result is finally +monetized using the \emph{Statistical Value of Life} for Portugal: +€3,055,358/fatality (Silva et al., 2021). We updated all the monetary +reference values of the literature based on the annual inflation rate in +Portugal for 2022\footnote{See \href{https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpid=INE\&xpgid=ipc}{Statistics Portugal tool for inflation rate estimates between years}.}, and our 10-years estimations assumed a discount rate of 5\% and inflation of @@ -594,9 +594,12 @@ \section{Results and Discussion}\label{results-and-discussion}} \end{table} Shifting from car to cycling in combination with PT can reduce annual -CO\textsubscript{2}eq emissions by 14,000 to 36,000 tons per year. The -10-year socio-environmental benefits account for €125 million to €325 -million, depending on the cycling targets. +CO\textsubscript{2}eq emissions by 11,500 to 28,500 tons per year. These +figures represent a 2.7\% reduction in Lisbon's transport emissions +(Lisboa E-Nova, 2023), a small but important component of wider +transport decarbonization measures. The 10-year socio-environmental +benefits account for €125 million to €325 million, depending on the +cycling targets. The environmental impacts represent less than 2\% of the socio-environmental benefits (in value) from replacing car trips to @@ -665,14 +668,14 @@ \section{Conclusion}\label{conclusion}} decarbonization of transport systems internationally. \hypertarget{acknowledgements}{% -\subsection*{Acknowledgements}\label{acknowledgements}} -\addcontentsline{toc}{subsection}{Acknowledgements} +\section*{Acknowledgements}\label{acknowledgements}} +\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{Acknowledgements} {[}\emph{blind}{]} \hypertarget{research-data}{% -\subsection*{Research data}\label{research-data}} -\addcontentsline{toc}{subsection}{Research data} +\section*{Research data}\label{research-data}} +\addcontentsline{toc}{section}{Research data} The data and the code to reproduce the results will be made available upon publication. @@ -761,6 +764,11 @@ \section*{References}\label{references}} \emph{15}(6), 486--499. \url{https://doi.org/10.1080/15568318.2020.1765223} +\leavevmode\vadjust pre{\hypertarget{ref-LisboaENova}{}}% +Lisboa E-Nova. (2023). \emph{{Observatórios Lisboa - Infos Emissões +Gases com Efeito Estufa}}. {Agência de Energia e Ambiente de Lisboa}. +\url{https://observatorios-lisboa.pt/info_emissoes.html} + \leavevmode\vadjust pre{\hypertarget{ref-Lovelace2022exploring}{}}% Lovelace, R., Félix, R., \& Carlino, D. (2022a). Exploring jittering and routing options for converting origin-destination data into route diff --git a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-1.pdf b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-1.pdf index ee0d6a5..3aa34f1 100644 Binary files a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-1.pdf and b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-1.pdf differ diff --git a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-2.pdf b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-2.pdf index 3eff9db..fe016ae 100644 Binary files a/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-2.pdf and b/paper/PaperCEUS/PaperCEUS_files/figure-latex/mododist-2.pdf differ diff --git a/paper/PaperCEUS/bibliography.bib b/paper/PaperCEUS/bibliography.bib index 9c50c28..652e3ff 100644 --- a/paper/PaperCEUS/bibliography.bib +++ b/paper/PaperCEUS/bibliography.bib @@ -305,3 +305,12 @@ @article{vanmil_insights_2021 annotation = {12 citations (Crossref) [2023-11-28]}, file = {/home/robin/Zotero/storage/IYMB9TRL/van Mil et al. - 2021 - Insights into factors affecting the combined bicyc.pdf} } + +@misc{LisboaENova, +title={{Observatórios Lisboa - Infos Emissões Gases com Efeito Estufa}}, +url={https://observatorios-lisboa.pt/info_emissoes.html}, +publisher={{Agência de Energia e Ambiente de Lisboa}}, +author={{Lisboa E-Nova}}, +year={2023}, +urldate={2023-09-15} +} \ No newline at end of file