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   <style:graphic-properties text:anchor-type="paragraph" svg:x="0cm" svg:y="0cm" style:wrap="dynamic" style:number-wrapped-paragraphs="no-limit" style:wrap-contour="false" style:vertical-pos="top" style:vertical-rel="paragraph" style:horizontal-pos="center" style:horizontal-rel="paragraph"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="Formula" style:family="graphic">
   <style:graphic-properties text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="0cm" fo:margin-left="0.201cm" fo:margin-right="0.201cm" style:vertical-pos="middle" style:vertical-rel="text"/>
  </style:style>
  <text:outline-style style:name="Outline">
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="1" loext:num-list-format="%1%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="2" loext:num-list-format="%2%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="3" loext:num-list-format="%3%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="4" loext:num-list-format="%4%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="5" loext:num-list-format="%5%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="6" loext:num-list-format="%6%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="7" loext:num-list-format="%7%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="8" loext:num-list-format="%8%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="9" loext:num-list-format="%9%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
   <text:outline-level-style text:level="10" loext:num-list-format="%10%" style:num-format="">
    <style:list-level-properties text:list-level-position-and-space-mode="label-alignment">
     <style:list-level-label-alignment text:label-followed-by="listtab"/>
    </style:list-level-properties>
   </text:outline-level-style>
  </text:outline-style>
  <text:notes-configuration text:note-class="footnote" style:num-format="1" text:start-value="0" text:footnotes-position="page" text:start-numbering-at="document"/>
  <text:notes-configuration text:note-class="endnote" style:num-format="i" text:start-value="0"/>
  <text:linenumbering-configuration text:number-lines="false" text:offset="0.499cm" style:num-format="1" text:number-position="left" text:increment="5"/>
 </office:styles>
 <office:automatic-styles>
  <style:style style:name="P1" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_2">
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P2" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3">
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P3" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3">
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="0013bdff"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P4" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:master-page-name="">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" style:page-number="auto" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="000a125d"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P5" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="000a125d"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P6" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:master-page-name="">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" style:page-number="auto" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="001207f5" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001207f5"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P7" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="001207f5" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001207f5"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P8" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00101a90" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="000a61f6"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P9" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="0015bcf2" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="0015bcf2"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P10" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_2">
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P11" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_2">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00173c34" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00179fa3"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P12" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_2" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00173c34" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00199337"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P13" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_2" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00173c34" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001b83f3"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P14" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3">
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P15" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3">
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="0013bdff" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P16" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00173c34" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P17" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00179fa3" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P18" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001832e8" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P19" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00199337" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P20" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00199435" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P21" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Heading_20_3" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0013bdff" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001cfe5c" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P22" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1" style:master-page-name="">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" style:page-number="auto" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="000a125d"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P23" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="000a125d"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P24" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" officeooo:rsid="0008cedc" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="000a125d" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P25" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1" style:master-page-name="">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" style:page-number="auto" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="001207f5" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001207f5"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P26" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="001207f5" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001207f5"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P27" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00173c34" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00173c34"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P28" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="0cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00173c34" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00173c34"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P29" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00179fa3" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00179fa3"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P30" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="001832e8" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001832e8"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P31" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00199337" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00199337"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P32" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="00199435" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="00199435"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P33" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="001b83f3" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001b83f3"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="P34" style:family="paragraph" style:parent-style-name="Standard" style:list-style-name="L1">
   <loext:graphic-properties draw:fill="none"/>
   <style:paragraph-properties fo:margin-left="0.4cm" fo:margin-right="0cm" fo:line-height="100%" fo:text-align="justify" style:justify-single-word="false" fo:text-indent="-0.4cm" style:auto-text-indent="false" fo:background-color="transparent"/>
   <style:text-properties style:font-name="Arial" officeooo:rsid="001cfe5c" officeooo:paragraph-rsid="001cfe5c"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="T1" style:family="text">
   <style:text-properties fo:language="en" fo:country="US" officeooo:rsid="00056df3"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="T2" style:family="text">
   <style:text-properties fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="italic" officeooo:rsid="00056df3" style:font-style-asian="italic" style:font-style-complex="italic"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="T3" style:family="text">
   <style:text-properties fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="italic" officeooo:rsid="00075ec8" style:font-style-asian="italic" style:font-style-complex="italic"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="T4" style:family="text">
   <style:text-properties fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="italic" officeooo:rsid="0008cedc" style:font-style-asian="italic" style:font-style-complex="italic"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="T5" style:family="text">
   <style:text-properties fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="italic" officeooo:rsid="001832e8" style:font-style-asian="italic" style:font-style-complex="italic"/>
  </style:style>
  <style:style style:name="T6" style:family="text">
   <style:text-properties fo:language="en" fo:country="US" fo:font-style="normal" style:font-style-asian="normal" style:font-style-complex="normal"/>
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   <text:h text:style-name="P1" text:outline-level="2">Chapter 9: Statistical Learning</text:h>
   <text:h text:style-name="P2" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T17">9.1 </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T16">What is Statistical Learning?</text:span></text:h>
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       </draw:frame></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T1">, we try to estimate response/outcome</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T1"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object6" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.377cm" svg:width="0.494cm" svg:height="0.467cm" draw:z-index="2"><draw:object>
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          <semantics>
           <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
            <mi>Y</mi>
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           <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0"> color snow {Y} </annotation>
          </semantics>
         </math>
        </draw:object><draw:image>
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        </draw:image>
        <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
       </draw:frame></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T1">. The model is </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T1"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object3" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.386cm" svg:width="2.212cm" svg:height="0.508cm" draw:z-index="3"><draw:object>
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               <mo fence="true" form="postfix" stretchy="false">)</mo>
              </mrow>
              <mo stretchy="false">+</mo>
              <mi>ϵ</mi>
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            </mrow>
           </mstyle>
           <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0"> color snow {Y=f(X)+%epsilon} </annotation>
          </semantics>
         </math>
        </draw:object><draw:image>
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         </office:binary-data>
        </draw:image>
        <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
       </draw:frame></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T1">. Where </text:span><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object7" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.377cm" svg:width="0.404cm" svg:height="0.467cm" draw:z-index="4"><draw:object>
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
         <semantics>
          <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
           <mi>f</mi>
          </mstyle>
          <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0"> color snow {f} </annotation>
         </semantics>
        </math>
       </draw:object><draw:image>
        <office:binary-data>VkNMTVRGAQAxAAAAAAAAAAEAGwAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABAAAAAQAAAAEAAAABAAAAAZQBAADU
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        </office:binary-data>
       </draw:image>
       <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
      </draw:frame><text:span text:style-name="T7">is the unknown function <text:s/></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T8">and </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T3">ϵ </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T8">represents error/noise with zero mean</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T3">.</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T8"> The error is factor that not included in unknown function and independent from predictors.</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P23"><text:span text:style-name="T8">We estimate outcome with <text:s/></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T8"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object2" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.443cm" svg:width="1.729cm" svg:height="0.564cm" draw:z-index="5"><draw:object>
         <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
          <semantics>
           <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
            <mrow>
             <mrow>
              <mover accent="true">
               <mi>Y</mi>
               <mo stretchy="false">^</mo>
              </mover>
              <mo stretchy="false">=</mo>
              <mover accent="true">
               <mi>f</mi>
               <mo stretchy="false">^</mo>
              </mover>
             </mrow>
             <mrow>
              <mo fence="true" form="prefix" stretchy="false">(</mo>
              <mrow>
               <mi>X</mi>
              </mrow>
              <mo fence="true" form="postfix" stretchy="false">)</mo>
             </mrow>
            </mrow>
           </mstyle>
           <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0"> color snow {hat Y=hat f(X)} </annotation>
          </semantics>
         </math>
        </draw:object><draw:image>
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          AAAAAJYAAQACAAAACQCMAAEAAAAAAA==
         </office:binary-data>
        </draw:image>
        <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
       </draw:frame></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T8"><text:s/></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T9">using linear equation </text:span><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object4" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.436cm" svg:width="4.918cm" svg:height="0.589cm" draw:z-index="6"><draw:object>
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
         <semantics>
          <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
           <mrow>
            <mrow>
             <mi>Y</mi>
             <mo stretchy="false">≈</mo>
             <mover accent="true">
              <mi>β</mi>
              <mo stretchy="false">^</mo>
             </mover>
            </mrow>
            <mrow>
             <mi>X</mi>
             <mo stretchy="false">=</mo>
             <mrow>
              <msub>
               <mi>β</mi>
               <mn>0</mn>
              </msub>
              <mo stretchy="false">+</mo>
              <msub>
               <mi>β</mi>
               <mn>1</mn>
              </msub>
             </mrow>
            </mrow>
            <mrow>
             <msub>
              <mi>x</mi>
              <mn>1</mn>
             </msub>
             <mo stretchy="false">+</mo>
             <mn>...</mn>
             <mo stretchy="false">+</mo>
             <msub>
              <mi>β</mi>
              <mi>p</mi>
             </msub>
            </mrow>
            <msub>
             <mi>x</mi>
             <mi>p</mi>
            </msub>
           </mrow>
          </mstyle>
          <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0"> color snow {Y approx hat %beta X = %beta_0 + %beta_1 x_1+ ...+%beta_p x_p }</annotation>
         </semantics>
        </math>
       </draw:object><draw:image>
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        </office:binary-data>
       </draw:image>
       <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
      </draw:frame><text:span text:style-name="T10">with </text:span><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object8" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.312cm" svg:width="0.564cm" svg:height="0.466cm" draw:z-index="7"><draw:object>
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
         <semantics>
          <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
           <msub>
            <mi>β</mi>
            <mi>n</mi>
           </msub>
          </mstyle>
          <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0"> color snow {%beta_n} </annotation>
         </semantics>
        </math>
       </draw:object><draw:image>
        <office:binary-data>VkNMTVRGAQAxAAAAAAAAAAEAGwAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABAAAAAQAAAAEAAAABAAAAATUCAADS
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        </office:binary-data>
       </draw:image>
       <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
      </draw:frame><text:span text:style-name="T4"><text:s/></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T10">as n-th parameter</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T9">. </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T10">Linear equation is not really good model. It needs more parameter to predict </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T10"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object9" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.377cm" svg:width="0.494cm" svg:height="0.467cm" draw:z-index="8"><draw:object>
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    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P23"><text:span text:style-name="T10">Next, we consider non-parametric model of </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T16"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object5" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.443cm" svg:width="0.404cm" svg:height="0.534cm" draw:z-index="0"><draw:object>
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    </text:list-item>
   </text:list>
   <text:p text:style-name="P24"/>
   <text:h text:style-name="P1" text:outline-level="2"><text:span text:style-name="T11">Chapter </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T10">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">0: </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T18">Testing</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6"> for Mean Reversion</text:span></text:h>
   <text:h text:style-name="P15" text:outline-level="3">10.1 Testing for Mean Reversion</text:h>
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    <text:list-item>
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    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P26">Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test: <draw:frame draw:style-name="fr2" draw:name="Object11" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.377cm" svg:width="8.874cm" svg:height="0.531cm" draw:z-index="10"><draw:object>
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       <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
      </draw:frame>. <text:span text:style-name="T20">to test if signal is random walk </text:span></text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P16" text:outline-level="3">10.<text:span text:style-name="T21">2</text:span> Testing for <text:span text:style-name="T20">Stationary</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P27">Stationary also can be tested with Hurst Exponent</text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P17" text:outline-level="3">10.<text:span text:style-name="T21">3</text:span> <text:span text:style-name="T21">Cointegration</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P27">Cointegration is term that describe two signal that have mean-reverting difference. We can use mean-reverting startegy with these signal</text:p>
    </text:list-item>
   </text:list>
   <text:p text:style-name="P28"/>
   <text:h text:style-name="P11" text:outline-level="2"><text:span text:style-name="T11">Chapter </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T10">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T12">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">: </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T12">Forcasting</text:span></text:h>
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    <text:list-item>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
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        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P17" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T21">11.1 Measuring Forecasting Accuracy</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P29"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Hit rate: percentage of correct prediction</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P29"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Confusion Matrix</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr1" draw:name="Object12" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.679cm" svg:width="1.967cm" svg:height="1.212cm" draw:z-index="11"><draw:object>
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                  <mi>D</mi>
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       </draw:frame></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">, </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T5">U </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T13">for up and </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T5">D </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T13">for down. Sub-script </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T5">T </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T13">for true and </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T5">F</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T13"> for false. </text:span></text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P18" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T21">11.</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T22">2</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21"> </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T22">Factor Choice</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P30"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Lagged price and volume, basically use historical data</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P30"><text:span text:style-name="T6">External Factors, usually sentiment from news or fundamental data</text:span></text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P18" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T21">11.</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T22">3 Classification Models</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P30"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Logistic Regression, pretty familiar</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P30"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Linear Discriminant Analysis, Bayesian method that assume Normality. </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T14">Good for linear boundaries and less observation/high bias. Up and Down class have same covariance matrix</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P31"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Quadratic Discriminant Analysis, same as above except Up and Down class have different covariance matrix. <text:s/>Good for non-linear boundaries and more observation/low bias.</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P31"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Support Vector Machine/ Support Vector Classifier. Not well explained in the book.</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P31"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Decision Trees and Random Forests: </text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P31"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Principal Component Analysis, unsupervised learning that aim to reduce predictor dimension</text:span></text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-header>
       <text:h text:style-name="P12" text:outline-level="2"><text:soft-page-break/><text:span text:style-name="T11">Chapter </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T10">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T15">2</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">: </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T12">Forcasting</text:span></text:h>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P19" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T21">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T23">2</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21">.1 </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T23">Trade Ana</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T24">lysis</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-header>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T14">T</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">otal Profit/Loss (PnL)</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Average Period PnL: average period of profit or loss</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Maximum Period Profit</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Maximum Period Loss</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Average Period Profit</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Average Period Loss</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Winning Periods: count of all period</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Losing Periods</text:span></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Percentage Win/Loss Periods</text:span></text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P20" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T21">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T23">2</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21">.</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T24">2</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21"> </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T24">Strategy and Portofolio Analysis</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T14">R</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">eturn Analysis </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr1" draw:name="Object13" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.386cm" svg:width="4.136cm" svg:height="0.542cm" draw:z-index="12"><draw:object>
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    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P32"><text:span text:style-name="T14">R</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">isk/Reward Analysis</text:span></text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
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               <mi>S</mi>
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                  <mrow>
                   <mrow>
                    <msub>
                     <mi>R</mi>
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                     <mi>R</mi>
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                   <mrow>
                    <mrow>
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                      <mi>R</mi>
                      <mi>a</mi>
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                     <mo stretchy="false">−</mo>
                     <msub>
                      <mi>R</mi>
                      <mi>b</mi>
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            </semantics>
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          <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
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         <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
        </draw:frame><text:span text:style-name="T15">is measured return rate </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T15"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr1" draw:name="Object16" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.377cm" svg:width="0.631cm" svg:height="0.531cm" draw:z-index="15"><draw:object>
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            <semantics>
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               <mi>R</mi>
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          <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
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      </text:list-item>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:p text:style-name="P33"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Annualised Sharpe </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr1" draw:name="Object17" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.693cm" svg:width="4.24cm" svg:height="1.184cm" draw:z-index="16"><draw:object>
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            <semantics>
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              <mrow>
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                <mi>S</mi>
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                 <mi>N</mi>
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                 <mrow>
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                   <mrow>
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                      <mrow>
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                        <mi>R</mi>
                        <mi>a</mi>
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                       <mo stretchy="false">−</mo>
                       <msub>
                        <mi>R</mi>
                        <mi>b</mi>
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          </draw:image>
          <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
         </draw:frame></text:span></text:p>
      </text:list-item>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:p text:style-name="P33"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Sortino Ratio </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6"><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr1" draw:name="Object18" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.693cm" svg:width="4.764cm" svg:height="1.184cm" draw:z-index="17"><draw:object>
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            <semantics>
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                   <mrow>
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                     <mi>R</mi>
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                    </msub>
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                     <mi>R</mi>
                     <mi>b</mi>
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                       <mrow>
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                         <mi>R</mi>
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                         <mi>R</mi>
                         <mi>b</mi>
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          <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
         </draw:frame></text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">, only downside deviation considered</text:span></text:p>
      </text:list-item>
      <text:list-item>
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           <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
            <semantics>
             <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
              <mrow>
               <mi mathvariant="italic">CALMAR</mi>
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                <mrow>
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                   <mrow>
                    <msub>
                     <mi>R</mi>
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                    </msub>
                    <mo stretchy="false">−</mo>
                    <msub>
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                     <mi>b</mi>
                    </msub>
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                </mrow>
                <mrow>
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                 <mi mathvariant="italic">drawdown</mi>
                </mrow>
               </mfrac>
              </mrow>
             </mstyle>
             <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0">color snow {CALMAR= {Avg ( R_a - R_b )} over {max. drawdown}}</annotation>
            </semantics>
           </math>
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       <text:h text:style-name="P13" text:outline-level="2"><text:span text:style-name="T11">Chapter </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T10">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T15">3</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">: </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T15">Risk and Money Management</text:span></text:h>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P21" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T21">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T25">3</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21">.</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T24">2</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21"> </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T25">Money Management</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P34"><text:span text:style-name="T14">K</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T6">elly Criterion </text:span><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr1" draw:name="Object20" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.437cm" svg:width="1.824cm" svg:height="0.591cm" draw:z-index="19"><draw:object>
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             <mi>f</mi>
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              <mi>μ</mi>
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              <msub>
               <mi>σ</mi>
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              <mn>2</mn>
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            </mrow>
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          </mstyle>
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       </draw:image>
       <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
      </draw:frame></text:p>
     <text:list>
      <text:list-item>
       <text:list>
        <text:list-header>
         <text:h text:style-name="P21" text:outline-level="3"><text:span text:style-name="T21">1</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T25">3</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21">.</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T25">3</text:span><text:span text:style-name="T21"> </text:span><text:span text:style-name="T25">Risk Management</text:span></text:h>
        </text:list-header>
       </text:list>
      </text:list-item>
     </text:list>
    </text:list-item>
    <text:list-item>
     <text:p text:style-name="P34"><text:span text:style-name="T6">Value-at-Risk </text:span><draw:frame draw:style-name="fr1" draw:name="Object21" text:anchor-type="as-char" svg:y="-0.386cm" svg:width="3.588cm" svg:height="0.508cm" draw:z-index="20"><draw:object>
        <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
         <semantics>
          <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
           <mrow>
            <mi>P</mi>
            <mrow>
             <mrow>
              <mo fence="true" form="prefix" stretchy="false">(</mo>
              <mrow>
               <mrow>
                <mi>L</mi>
                <mo stretchy="false">≤</mo>
                <mrow>
                 <mo stretchy="false">−</mo>
                 <mi mathvariant="italic">VaR</mi>
                </mrow>
               </mrow>
              </mrow>
              <mo fence="true" form="postfix" stretchy="false">)</mo>
             </mrow>
             <mo stretchy="false">=</mo>
             <mrow>
              <mn>1</mn>
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              <mi>e</mi>
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           </mrow>
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       </draw:image>
       <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
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         <semantics>
          <mstyle mathcolor="#FFFAFA">
           <mrow>
            <mi mathvariant="italic">Var</mi>
            <mo stretchy="false">=</mo>
            <mrow>
             <mi>P</mi>
             <mo stretchy="false">−</mo>
             <mrow>
              <mi>P</mi>
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              <mrow>
               <mo fence="true" form="prefix" stretchy="false">(</mo>
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                <mrow>
                 <mi mathvariant="italic">ppf</mi>
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                  <mrow>
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                    <mrow>
                     <mrow>
                      <mn>1</mn>
                      <mo stretchy="false">−</mo>
                      <mi>c</mi>
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                     <mi>,</mi>
                     <mi>μ</mi>
                     <mi>,</mi>
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                  <mo stretchy="false">+</mo>
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             </mrow>
            </mrow>
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          <annotation encoding="StarMath 5.0">color snow {Var = P - P *(ppf(1-c, %mu, %sigma)+1)}</annotation>
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        </office:binary-data>
       </draw:image>
       <svg:desc>formula</svg:desc>
      </draw:frame></text:p>
    </text:list-item>
   </text:list>
  </office:text>
 </office:body>
</office:document>